That, give or take a week, is how long until Canadians will next mark a federal ballot and that is why it is important to remember that the embattled Stephen Harper government is only at halftime.
Yes, it is facing its most serious crisis as a majority government.
The Senate spending scandal has damaged the Conservative brand, broken the trust with some of its core supporters, has led to a caucus resignation and exposed a once-efficient political machine to be flailing and unable to put a lid on trouble.
This government looks tired, arrogant, bereft of big ideas or grand visions, much more adept at attack and obfuscation than leadership and statesmanship.
But there is no need for anyone to start crafting an obit for the Conservatives more than two years before the next election because in politics, time really is the great healer.
Short-term moves won’t turn things around. A much-anticipated cabinet shuffle won’t help them.
A younger front bench, with more women playing prominent roles, would be welcome, but cabinet shuffles fascinate political insiders and the parliamentary press gallery. The departure of a big name or two, or the ascension to key posts of a couple of different, interesting unknowns, will be newsworthy, but it won’t turn this ship.
Positive jobs reports like Friday’s will help, as will a fade to black for a long summer that stretches into the autumn with a Throne Speech featuring a forward-looking plan that this government could proudly place in the window heading to the 2015 campaign.
The Conservatives could have a Supreme Court opinion on the Senate that allows them to become the party of reform or even abolition, diluting the NDP attack.
The court could render its opinion as early as the end of this year, or as late as early 2015.
A look at two western provinces could provide solace for shaken partisans.
In Alberta and British Columbia, two women representing parties that had held power for years overcame the cry for change and won unlikely, but impressive, victories.
Alison Redford and Christy Clark, both of whom carried unwelcome political baggage into the campaigns, showed that those campaigns do matter and that pre-election posturing and preening has a limited shelf life.
In Alberta, Redford convinced Alberta voters that upstart Wildrose leader Danielle Smith was too inexperienced to govern, and in British Columbia, Clark was able to convince voters that New Democrat Adrian Dix couldn’t be trusted with the economy.
Federal Conservatives in 2015 can be expected to use the inexperience tag on Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, and the fear of a New Democrat with the keys to the treasury will be a major argument against Tom Mulcair.
There are 30 new seats up for grabs in areas of perceived Conservative strength in 2015 and the presence of strong NDP and Liberal leaders make it more likely that the anti-Conservative votes will split.
That’s the good news for Conservatives.
But there is bad news.
No matter how long he waits before he faces off with Mulcair and Trudeau again in the House of Commons, there will be fresh questions about an audit of Sen. Pamela Wallin’s expenses, which will not come before the Commons rises.
A full audit of the Senate could reveal more spending irregularities in a report which could start bleeding into election season.
If there is an RCMP probe of the Senate spending or the Nigel Wright-Mike Duffy payout, the timing on that is outside the Conservatives’ reach. An ethics report on the Duffy-Wright deal could reignite the entire controversy.
Still, trust in the Conservative brand can be restored, but by 2015 Harper, if still at the helm, would be seeking to become the sixth-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history, asking Canadians to leapfrog him past Jean Chrétien into fifth place with a fresh mandate. None of the four ahead of him served in the era of social media and never-ending news cycles.
Voter fatigue with the leader would almost certainly outstrip fatigue with the party itself and if he decides to stay, Harper would be giving the finger to fate and ignoring history.
The time and space formula might also need fresh leadership.
Original Article
Source: thestar.com
Author: Tim Harper
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