“This coming fall I would expect that there’s going to be some sort of charm offensive to help slowly get Stephen Harper’s brand back to where the Conservatives have had it for the last number of years,” Mr. Nanos told The Hill Times following the release of his firm’s latest national trend lines last week.
“Prior to his brand taking a hit, he had a lot of coattails that the government and the party could ride on. Those coattails are shorter now,” Mr. Nanos said.
Nanos Research routinely charts public approval of federal leaders through its leadership index, which is the total of the percentages of respondents who believe a given leader to be most competent, trustworthy, and have the best vision for the country.
According to Nanos Research’s recent polling, 23 per cent of survey respondents said that they trust Stephen Harper (Carlgary Southwest, Alta.) the most among federal leaders. Some 27.1 per cent responded that the Prime Minister was the most competent federal leader, and 22.6 per cent said the Prime Minister had the best vision for the country. The sum of the percentages gives Stephen Harper a leadership index score of 72.7.
The Prime Minister continues to enjoy a strong advantage over the other federal leaders in terms of public approval of his leadership. NDP leader Tom Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) was a distant second with a leadership score of 46.8, 15.8 per cent of respondents said Mr. Mulcair was the most trustworthy federal leader, 12.8 per cent said he was the most competent, and 18.2 per cent said he had the best vision for Canada.
Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae’s (Toronto Centre, Ont.) leadership index score improved slightly in the month following his announcement that he would not seek the permanent leadership of his party. Mr. Rae rivalled Mr. Mulcair with a leadership score of 41.5, 14 per cent of respondents said Mr. Rae was the most trustworthy, 14.5 per cent said he was the most competent, and 13 per cent said that he had the best vision for the country.
But while the Prime Minister continues to enjoy a strong lead over his rivals, the long-term trend line for the Prime Minister’s public approval has been in falling since last fall, when Mr. Harper’s score was at an all-time high of 114.2. In September, 36.5 per cent of respondents said he was most trustworthy, 40.9 per cent said he was most competent, and 36.8 per cent said he had the best vision for Canada.
Mr. Harper’s overall leadership score fell to 97.2 in October and stabilized in that range in the final months of 2011.
Public confidence in the Prime Minister dropped even more dramatically beginning in February, 2012, when details began to emerge of an Elections Canada investigation into allegations of vote suppression during the 2011 federal election campaign. Between February and May, Mr. Harper’s leadership index plummeted more than 36 points from 102.4 to 65.8, and has improved only slightly in the months since.
Mr. Nanos observed that Prime Minister Harper’s reputation as a federal leader has declined more significantly than the reputation of his own party.
“There’s been a more dramatic drop in Stephen Harper’s personal brand, compared to that of the Conservatives,” noted Mr. Nanos, who said that public disappointment with the handling of the F-35 procurement and costing have been particularly damaging to the Prime Minister, the government, and the Conservatives.
“The Conservatives’ brand has been built around economic stewardship and competency,” Mr. Nanos said. “For a lot of Canadians, whether they vote for the Conservatives or another party, they’re wondering how the Conservatives could have made mistakes in terms of estimating the costs related to the F-35.”
The Nanos survey is the latest in a series of summer polls that reflect a decline in public confidence in the government.
A July 13 poll by EKOS Research showed support for the Tories down 9.4 percentage points over last May’s election results, to 30.2 per cent. The poll put the New Democrats two percentage points ahead of the Tories, with 32.3 per cent support, while the Liberals were just below 20 per cent, and Green Party support was at 10 per cent.
EKOS President Frank Graves told The Hill Times that not since 1989 has a government seen such a significant drop in support within one year of securing a majority mandate at the polls. That year marked the beginning of the end for Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative government. Mr. Mulroney entered his second term with 169 seats, but stepped aside as party leader in 1993. His party was reduced to two seats in the House of Commons following the 1993 federal election.
Mr. Graves said that it was too far from the next federal election, slated for the fall of 2015, to tell how current numbers would impact the Conservative government in the long run, but agreed that issues such as the F-35 procurement, vote suppression allegations, and the government’s omnibus budget bill have dragged down public approval for the government and the Prime Minister.
“It’s not that the public are reacting to any individual pratfall. It seems to be more of a critical mass of frustration with the government’s management style – the way they’re conducting themselves in office,” Mr. Graves observed.
A June poll by Forum Research and The National Post put support for the Conservatives at 30 per cent, while 37 per cent of respondents said that they would vote for the NDP, and 22 per cent said that they would vote Liberal.
June polling by Angus Reid showed the government and official opposition neck and neck, with the Conservatives polling at 34 per cent, the NDP at 35 per cent, and the Liberals at 19 per cent.
Nanos Research’s July poll put the Conservatives ahead of the NDP by 3.3 percentage points, with the parties receiving 33.6 and 30.3 per cent support, respectively. The Liberals trailed with 26.5 per cent support.
A significant number of respondents did not approve of any of the federal leaders in the latest Nano polling—14.8 per cent said none of the leaders were trustworthy, 12.5 per cent said none of the leaders were competent, and 12.3 per cent said that none of the leaders had the best vision for Canada, giving ‘None of them’ a leadership score of 39.6.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: Chris Plecash
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