Democracy Gone Astray

Democracy, being a human construct, needs to be thought of as directionality rather than an object. As such, to understand it requires not so much a description of existing structures and/or other related phenomena but a declaration of intentionality.
This blog aims at creating labeled lists of published infringements of such intentionality, of points in time where democracy strays from its intended directionality. In addition to outright infringements, this blog also collects important contemporary information and/or discussions that impact our socio-political landscape.

All the posts here were published in the electronic media – main-stream as well as fringe, and maintain links to the original texts.

[NOTE: Due to changes I haven't caught on time in the blogging software, all of the 'Original Article' links were nullified between September 11, 2012 and December 11, 2012. My apologies.]

Monday, March 19, 2012

Only way to beat Tories is join NDP-Grit forces, says pollster

Veteran pollster and keen political observer Frank Graves has some sobering insight for the thousands of New Democrats set to elect their new leader this week: short of a “good old nuclear scandal” neither the NDP nor the Liberals are likely to displace the governing Conservatives in 2015 unless they somehow, in whatever way, join forces.

“The more I look at the political landscape and why it’s so dramatically different today than it was five years ago, the more I’m convinced that neither the NDP nor the Liberals are going to be able to safely, or within any margin of confidence, replace this government as long as they remain competitive separate parties,” Mr. Graves told The Hill Times last week when he was asked to ponder for printed history what’s at stake as several thousands of New Democrats, and thousands more online, prepare to cast ballots in what could be the most important decision they have collectively made since selecting Jack Layton to lead them out of the wilderness in 2003.

“That’s my view, barring that old favourite political disruptor, a good old nuclear scandal, and if this robocon thing does escalate into that, there’s a smoking gun or a deep throat, then who knows, that actually could change the stakes,” Mr. Graves said.

Mr. Graves was referring in his characteristically more colourful turn of phrase to the robocall affair, the controversy over alleged fraudulent telephone calls to voters in the federal election last year that, as it stands now, has all the earmarks and potential of being a full-fledged scandal that could shake the 12-seat majority Conservative government to its core.


But even if the robocall investigations by Elections Canada confirm more electoral districts experienced fraudulent calls to voters in the election—following the revelation that attempts to direct voters away from their polling stations in Guelph, Ont., had been traced to the local Conservative campaign—Mr. Graves’ analysis could still apply.

He said the NDP for the most part should hold on to their unprecedented Quebec support in 2011 and growing in British Columbia, and the Liberals under Bob Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.) for the moment creeping upward from their electoral disaster last May, the two parties could still enter the 2015 campaign at such a competitive state that with their vote split, along with other voter fragmentation, neither might be able to topple the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, NDP leadership candidate Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.) is the only NDP leadership candidate with a plan to cooperate with the Liberals in the next federal election, but signs are emerging that the party’s establishment is uneasy with Tom Mulcair’s (Outremont, Que.) plans to “modernize” the party. The two are emerging as the candidates who will work with the Liberals in the next election, an idea that’s gaining traction in both parties’ ranks.

“If we don’t unite the progressive vote, Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister until he gets bored,” NDP MP Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre, Man.) told The Hill Times last week.

Mr. Martin has declined endorsing any of the seven candidates in the running to replace the late Jack Layton as leader of the NDP, but spoke favourably of Mr. Cullen’s proposal for allowing New Democrat riding associations to hold joint nominations with the Liberals and Greens in Conservative held ridings for the 2015 election. The plan is intended to stop vote-splitting by offering voters a choice between a single “progressive” candidate and the Conservative incumbent in a riding.

What Mr. Cullen has proposed is less a merger than strategic cooperation that could produce a progressive coalition government in 2015. In the last federal election the NDP, Liberals and Greens combined for more than 53 per cent of the nationwide popular vote, but the Conservatives were able to form a 166-seat majority with 39.6 per cent of all ballots cast.

Last weekend Mr. Cullen told CBC Radio that he isn’t “wedded to the details” of what he’s proposed, but believes that his party is in “the perfect position to lead a progressive conversation” on working with other parties to bring an end to the Conservative government.

“We might be able to defeat Stephen Harper in 2015 on our own, but united it’s a sure thing. It would be a majority instead of a minority, and it would have some degree of permanence,” said Mr. Martin, likening the NDP and Liberals to “cousins.”

Mr. Cullen’s proposal has set him apart from the NDP leadership field—much of his competition has panned the idea.

Long-time NDP strategist Brian Topp has said that he’s open to a coalition in the case of a Conservative minority but wants the NDP to run a candidate in every federal riding in 2015, while Niki Ashton (Churchill, Man.) says in her Q&A feature in this week’s issue of The Hill Times that the plan would alienate NDP and Liberal voters, pushing some to vote Conservative and others to stay home on election day.

In the past, Mr. Mulcair, the front-runner and former Quebec provincial Liberal Cabinet minister, has gone on the record as being “firmly opposed” to a merger with the Liberals and wants the NDP to run on its own distinct platform in the next election. However, recent attacks against Mr. Mulcair by the NDP’s old-guard and Conservatives have fuelled speculation that both elements fear that his plans to “modernize” the NDP involve merging with the Liberals to form a “Liberal Democratic Party.”

As Postmedia News columnist Michael Den Tandt noted in last Friday’s Ottawa Citizen, the leading “anybody-but-Mulcair” candidate is Mr. Topp, whose campaign continues to founder in the final weeks of the campaign as support for Mr. Cullen and Mr. Mulcair has swelled. Mr. Den Tandt observed that Mr. Mulcair is the best positioned candidate to “absorb the Liberals” and that he is the overwhelming second choice of Mr. Cullen’s supporters. His column posits Mr. Cullen as deputy English leader in a Mulcair-led official opposition.

NDP MP Bruce Hyer (Thunder Bay-Superior North, Ont.), who endorsed Mr. Cullen for leader last Wednesday, said he had not heard any talk of a Mulcair-led merger of progressive parties, but told The Hill Times that he was in favour of “temporarily” cooperating with the Liberals in a minority or coalition government. Mr. Hyer’s second choice for leader is Mr. Mulcair, followed by Paul Dewar (Ottawa Centre, Ont.) and Ms. Ashton.

“I think a particularly powerful team would be a leader-deputy leader of Cullen-Mulcair or Mulcair-Cullen,” said Mr. Hyer. “One is urban-east, the other is rural-west, and they’re both dynamos and they’re very different.”

NDP MP Glenn Thibeault (Sudbury, Ont.), who endorsed Mr. Mulcair on Feb. 8, has made Mr. Cullen his second choice for NDP leader. Mr. Thibeault said that he is neither for nor against negotiating some level of cooperation between his own party and the Liberals. On whether or not Mr. Mulcair planned to forge a single centre-left party, Mr. Thibeault was adamant that he had not heard such rumours.

So far Martin Singh is the only leadership candidate to formally name a second choice for his supporters to transfer their vote to if he is knocked out of leadership contention. Last Wednesday Mr. Singh, who has been credited with registering 10,000 new NDP members, directed his supporters to make Mr. Mulcair their second choice as NDP leader.

Few New Democrats have been vocal in their support of working with the Liberals in the next election, but a number of high-profile Liberals have made overtures to their opposition colleagues since last May’s election.

Liberal MP Denis Coderre (Bourassa, Que.) and former prime minister Jean Chrétien both publicly spoke in favour of negotiations with the NDP last fall, and just last week Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) admitted to students at the University of Victoria that the two parties would face “a lot of pressure” to cooperate if neither was positioned to form government independently in the lead up to the next election.

Last week Liberal MP John McKay (Scarborough – Guildwood, Ont.) spoke cautiously on the issue of Liberal-NDP cooperation when asked what he thought of Mr. Cullen’s proposal by The Hill Times.

“Whether it’s the best approach or not, I don’t really know,” said Mr. McKay. “What I do know is that the right wing united a few years ago and they got to run the country on 35 per cent of the vote. The progressive side has yet to realize that it can’t continue to split 60 per cent of the vote. I don’t really know what the solution is but good for Nathan for raising the issue.”

Although he admitted interest in Mr. Cullen’s plan, Mr. McKay said Liberal-NDP cooperation may not be necessary to oust the Tories from power in 2015.

“The best-before date will have arrived with respect to his government, in fact, it probably already has. Canadians don’t necessarily vote for you, they vote against you, so that’s why I’m not convinced Nathan’s plan is ultimately the best solution,” said Mr. McKay.

In the past there have been rumours that Mr. Chrétien and former federal NDP leader Ed Broadbent had informal merger talks regarding their respective parties, but Mr. Broadbent shot down such speculation following the 2011 election in which the Liberals were decimated and the NDP became the official opposition for the first time in its 50-year history.

Last week Mr. Broadbent, who endorsed Brian Topp as soon as he announced his leadership bid on Sept. 12 of last year, attacked Mr. Mulcair’s leadership ability and criticized him for being vague about his plans to modernize the party in an interview with The Globe & Mail. Such a public attack from the NDP’s pre-eminent elder statesman within days of the leadership vote led CBC The National’s At Issue panelist Bruce Anderson to liken Mr. Broadbent’s comments to “a baseball bat to the legs” of Mr. Mulcair.

Mr. Thibeault said that he was disappointed in the negative “desperation” coming from Mr. Topp’s campaign.

“I’m supporting Tom but I thought the whole plan was to keep this race as positive as we can and avoid what happened with the Liberals in their last leadership convention. They took it exactly where none of us as New Democrats wanted to go,” Mr. Thibeault said.

Advance polling for the NDP leadership began on March 1 with members being allowed to submit preferential rankings online and by mail. The first round of voting at the convention will take place on the evening of March 23 and the combined tally of advanced preferential ballots and first ballots will be announced on the morning of Saturday, March 24.

Sally Housser, who currently serves as the NDP’s acting national director, said the party’s final electoral roll was 131,152, but would not confirm what percentage of members had already voted. Over 3,000 delegates are registered to attend the convention. Ms. Housser said that organizers were expecting “two or three rounds” on Saturday, which would mean that the NDP would have a new permanent leader by late afternoon that day.

Meanwhile, though Mr. Graves declined to talk about specific NDP leadership candidates, not to mention the coming leadership choice facing the Liberals, Mr. Graves noted that the question of cooperation between the Liberals and New Democrats has, thanks to Mr. Cullen, become a simmering topic through the seven-month marathon.

“I know the tendency for parties is to say obviously, ‘Winner take all, geez we can do this,’ and frankly the NDP look like they’re a little closer to that goal than the Liberals, but my sense is there’s no sure path or even likely path to successfully replacing the Conservative government as long as there are four parties staked out on the left,” Mr. Graves said.

Mr. Graves said while the four left-of-centre parties remain fragmented—each left-of-middle to varying degrees and including the Bloc—the electorate is also settling down to new postures, unheard of prior to the advent of Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.).

“It’s becoming clearer, not just by virtue of the four parties, but by the way I’m seeing the sort of ideological fragmentation of the Canadian electorate in a way that we’ve never seen before,” he argued.

Mr. Graves said he believes, based on his polling trends and contrary to the view held in red Liberal territory, that the NDP has shown, leaderless as it has been and with most of its star frontbenchers out of House action since October, that its success last year was not “an ephemeral blip propelled by the charismatic authority of Jack Layton.”

Mr. Graves posed that it is because, underneath the effect Mr. Layton’s leadership and strategic success in Quebec had, there have been dramatic subterranean shifts in Canada’s voting population in the past five years, which in the broader international sense, have also been reflected by the post-recession upheaval over the mushrooming gap between the poor and the rich.

“It is the increasing ideological fragmentation of the Canadian electorate, but also new sort of splits on, I’m not sure another term captures it as well, basically class conflicts. The new dominant issue that we see, but which nobody else is talking about, what the Americans are noting as the new number one issue, is income inequality,” said Mr. Graves.

Two NDP MPs, one supporting leading contender Mr. Mulcair and the other behind Mr. Topp, whose base throughout the campaign has been in the NDP fortress of British Columbia, dismissed Mr. Graves’s claim that the only way for the party to go is sideways, working with the Liberals.

“We are three years ahead of an election, we didn’t have a real leader for the last six or seven months, nine months, the Liberals don’t have a permanent leader either,” NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice (Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Que.), one of Mr. Topp’s first major backers, told The Hill Times. “A lot of earthquakes can happen in three years in politics. Believe me, my last year was not expected at all.”

NDP MP Jack Harris (St. John’s East, Nfld.), among the host of endorsements Mr. Mulcair has picked up in the Atlantic provinces, put it much the same way.

“We’re talking about an election that is going to take place in 2015, so let’s wait until 2015 and we’ll see where the polls are then,” Mr. Harris said.

“Our intention is to form a government the next time out, we’ve got a hundred plus Members of Parliament, we’re going to have a new leader, hold the phone,” Mr. Harris said.

Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: TIM NAUMETZ, CHRIS PLECASH

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